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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However the latest field is profoundly different. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and recent strugglers ascending collectively. Under an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

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